The replay
readouts81hit the primary20Brier0.1895base rate Brier0.1859coin flip0.2500
sha256 227ee012a5f02ade9bff8db65b5bb64fd3cfba9142e9e93d175b8e176a62d715 · corpus read 2026-10-11
Calibration
By endpoint class
| Class | n | hits | mean p | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| other | 15 | 4 | 21% | 0.189 |
| neuropsychiatric | 15 | 8 | 32% | 0.273 |
| cognitive-functional | 36 | 6 | 22% | 0.147 |
| biomarker | 15 | 2 | 48% | 0.208 |
Method: each trial is priced as of its primary completion date. The sponsor's record counts only readouts posted before that date; PubMed counts the 24 months before it; registry design fields (phase, enrolment, sponsor class, the first primary outcome) do not change at readout. Outcome: the first prespecified analysis of the first primary outcome, p under 0.05 and superiority, parsed from the posted results.
Every readout 81
| Trial | Sponsor | Primary outcome | Model | p-value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIND NCT02720445 · P2 · 2025-08-25 | University of Southern California | Cogstate Battery International Shopping List Test - Total Immediate Recall (ISLT-TIR) | 20% | 0.530 | NO |
| ADVANCE-2 NCT05557409 · P3 · 2024-11-21 | Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) | 36% | 0.407 | NO |
| APOLLOE4 NCT04770220 · P3 · 2024-05-29 | Alzheon Inc. | Primary Cognitive Efficacy Endpoint (ADAS-Cog13) | 12% | 0.6058 | NO |
| INVOKE-2 NCT04592874 · P2 · 2024-08-19 | Alector Inc. | Disease Progression as Measured by the Clinical Dementia Rating - Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) Score | 19% | 0.7975 | NO |
| Abroad NCT05771428 · P2 · 2024-08-06 | AbbVie | Change From Baseline in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog 14) Score at Week 12 | 16% | 0.9819 | NO |
| REFOCUS-ALZ NCT05026177 · P3 · 2024-12-30 | Cassava Sciences, Inc. | Change From Baseline in the 12-item Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog12) | 21% | 0.5335 | NO |
| Anti-viral Therapy in Alzheimer'… NCT03282916 · P2 · 2024-09-05 | Columbia University | Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognition (ADAS-COG11, Modified Version) Score | 11% | <0.05 | YES |
| The Synapse Project NCT04871074 · P2 · 2023-10-17 | University of Wisconsin, Madison | ROC AUCs (MCI/AD vs Cognitively Unimpaired (CU)) for Medial Temporal Lobe (MTL) UCB-J Distribution Volume Ratio (DVR) and Hippocampal Volume | 37% | .74 | NO |
| A Study to Evaluate the Effects … NCT05619692 · P2 · 2024-06-05 | Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Change From Baseline in the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV (WAIS-IV) Coding Test Score | 19% | 0.1642 | NO |
| RETHINK-ALZ NCT04994483 · P3 · 2024-10-02 | Cassava Sciences, Inc. | Change From Baseline in the 12-item Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog12) | 19% | 0.4308 | NO |
| THC-AD NCT02792257 · P2 · 2024-05-31 | Johns Hopkins University | Symptoms of Agitation as Measured by the Pittsburgh Agitation Scale | 27% | .015 | YES |
| DIAN-TU NCT06424236 · P2/3 · 2023-10-06 | Washington University School of Medicine | Change From Baseline in Composite [11C] Pittsburgh Compound B (PiB)-Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Composite Standardized Uptake Value Ratio (C-SUVR) at Weeks 52, 104 and 156 | 59% | 0.0117 | YES |
| Long-term Safety of Tafamidis in… NCT02791230 · P3 · 2023-10-26 | Pfizer | Time to All-Cause Mortality: Cohort A | 29% | 0.0001 | YES |
| BRAVE-EPA NCT02719327 · P2/3 · 2023-09-29 | VA Office of Research and Development | Regional Cerebral Blood Flow Using Arterial Spin-labeling MRI | 42% | 0.17 | NO |
| A Study of Seltorexant in Partic… NCT05307692 · P2 · 2023-11-10 | Janssen Research & Development, LLC | Change From Baseline in Neuropsychiatric Inventory Clinician Version (NPI-C) Sum of Agitation and Aggression Domain Scores (NPI-C A+A) at Day 43: Analyzed Under Estimand 1 | 29% | 0.308 | NO |
| Proof-of-concept, Open-label Stu… NCT05161715 · P2 · 2023-05-09 | NewAmsterdam Pharma | Mean Percent Change in Apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) in Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) | 36% | 0.425 | NO |
| Brexpiprazole for the Treatment … NCT03620981 · P2/3 · 2023-04-21 | Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. | Change From Baseline in Cohen-Manfield Agitation Inventory(CMAI) Score at 10 Weeks After Dosing. | 44% | < 0.0001 | YES |
| Efficacy and Safety of MK-1942 a… NCT05602727 · P2 · 2023-09-27 | Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC | Change From Baseline in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-11-item Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog11) Score at Week 12 | 15% | 0.186 | NO |
| SEAD2 NCT03101085 · P1/2 · 2021-03-01 | Russell Swerdlow | Cytochrome Oxidase/Citrate Synthase (COX/CS) Activity | 13% | >0.05 | NO |
| ATTRibute-CM NCT03860935 · P3 · 2023-05-11 | Eidos Therapeutics, a BridgeBio company | A Hierarchical Combination of All-Cause Mortality, Cumulative Frequency of CV-related Hospitalization, Change From Baseline in NT-proBNP and Change From Baseline in 6MWT at the Last Available Visit Where Both Subjects Had Non-missing Assessments. | 22% | <0.0001 | YES |
| A Study of Donanemab (LY3002813)… NCT04437511 · P3 · 2023-04-14 | Eli Lilly and Company | Change From Baseline on the Integrated Alzheimer's Disease Rating Scale (iADRS) (Overall Population) | 39% | <0.001 | YES |
| Tau Positron Emission Tomography… NCT03977584 · P2 · 2022-04-19 | Hoffmann-La Roche | Annualized Rate of Change in Tau Burden | 63% | 0.1953 | NO |
| Efficacy and Safety Study of Gan… NCT03444870 · P3 · 2022-12-28 | Hoffmann-La Roche | DBT Period: Change From Baseline to Week 116 in Global Outcome, as Measured by CDR-SB | 33% | 0.0954 | NO |
| Safety and Efficacy Study of Gan… NCT03443973 · P3 · 2022-09-23 | Hoffmann-La Roche | DBT Period: Change From Baseline to Week 116 in Global Outcome, as Measured by CDR-SB | 32% | 0.2998 | NO |
| A4 NCT02008357 · P3 · 2022-12-27 | Eli Lilly and Company | Change From Baseline of the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC) Score | 36% | 0.260 | NO |
| T2 Protect AD NCT03605667 · P2 · 2020-12-15 | Biohaven Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Change From Baseline in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) Total Score at Week 48 | 18% | 0.9809 | NO |
| A Study of Donanemab (LY3002813)… NCT05108922 · P3 · 2022-09-09 | Eli Lilly and Company | Percentage of Participants Who Reach Complete Amyloid Plaque Clearance on Florbetapir F18 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Scan (Superiority) on Donanemab Versus Aducanumab | 70% | <0.001 | YES |
| NEAT NCT03061474 · P2 · 2022-08-30 | University of California, Irvine | Change in P-tau 231 | 37% | 0.6096 | NO |
| A Study of Crenezumab Versus Pla… NCT01998841 · P2 · 2022-03-22 | Genentech, Inc. | Period A: Annualized Rate of Change in the Autosomal-Dominant Alzheimer's Disease (API ADAD) Composite Cognitive Test Total Score | 32% | 0.43 | NO |
| A Trial to Evaluate the Safety, … NCT03548584 · P3 · 2022-05-23 | Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. | Change From Baseline to Week 12 in the CMAI Total Score | 42% | 0.0026 | YES |
| ADVANCE NCT03226522 · P2/3 · 2020-04-17 | Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. | Change in CMAI Total Score | 31% | 0.010 | YES |
| Network-Level Mechanisms for Pre… NCT03461861 · P2 · 2021-03-31 | Medical College of Wisconsin | Functional Connectivity Strengths of Neural Networks | 10% | 0.007567 | YES |
| SUVN-502 With Donepezil and Mema… NCT02580305 · P2 · 2019-11-05 | Suven Life Sciences Limited | Change From Baseline to Week-26 in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale 11 (ADAS-Cog 11) | 21% | 0.41 | NO |
| The Relationship Between Neurops… NCT03702816 · P2 · 2019-09-29 | Aaron Ritter, MD | Frontal GE180 Standardized Uptake Value Ratio (SUVR) | 35% | 0.60 | NO |
| GAIN Trial: Phase 2/3 Study of C… NCT03823404 · P2/3 · 2022-01-01 | Cortexyme Inc. | Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale 11 (ADAS-Cog 11) | 19% | <0.0455 | YES |
| Efficacy, Safety and Tolerabilit… NCT02442765 · P3 · 2019-01-30 | Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. | Stage 1 and Stage 2: Change From Baseline in the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) Composite Score to Week 6 and Week 12 | 31% | =0.021 | YES |
| Prazosin for Agitation in Alzhei… NCT03710642 · P2 · 2022-01-05 | Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study (ADCS) | ADCS-Clinical Global Impression of Change in Agitation (ADCS-CGIC-A) | 18% | 0.9904 | NO |
| A Study of Semorinemab in Patien… NCT03828747 · P2 · 2021-07-20 | Genentech, Inc. | Change From Baseline to Last Visit of Double-Blind Treatment Period in Cognitive Function as Measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, Cognitive Subscale, 11-Item Version (ADAS-Cog11) | 22% | 0.0008 | YES |
| Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerabili… NCT02442778 · P3 · 2019-08-14 | Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. | Change From Baseline to Week 12 in the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) Composite Score | 33% | 0.789 | NO |
| A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy… NCT02880956 · P2 · 2021-03-30 | AbbVie | Change From Baseline Over Time in CDR-SB Score | 20% | 0.740 | NO |
| Benfotiamine NCT02292238 · P2 · 2020-07-20 | Burke Medical Research Institute | Change From Baseline in ADAS-Cog Score | 11% | 0.125 | NO |
| LEV-AD NCT02002819 · P2 · 2020-07-21 | University of Minnesota | Changes in Executive Function as Measured by the NIH EXAMINER Computer Battery | 11% | 0.55 | NO |
| A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy… NCT03289143 · P2 · 2021-01-15 | Genentech, Inc. | Change From Baseline on the CDR-SB | 24% | 0.6147 | NO |
| A Study of LY3002813 in Particip… NCT03367403 · P2 · 2020-12-04 | Eli Lilly and Company | Change From Baseline in the Integrated Alzheimer's Disease Rating Scale (iADRS) Score | 33% | 0.042 | YES |
| Elevage NCT03980730 · P2 · 2020-12-01 | vTv Therapeutics | Part 1 : Change From Baseline in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-cog14) at Month 6 | 14% | 0.2057 | NO |
| Scarlet Road NCT01224106 · P3 · 2020-09-10 | Hoffmann-La Roche | Mean Change From Baseline in Clinical Dementia Rating Scale Sum of Boxes (CDR-SOB) Total Score at Week 104 (Double-Blind Treatment Phase) | 31% | 0.6744 | NO |
| Efficacy, Safety and Tolerabilit… NCT01584440 · P2 · 2014-07-30 | Avanir Pharmaceuticals | Change in the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) Agitation/Aggression Domain Score From Day 1 (Stage 1 Baseline) to Day 36 (Stage 2 Baseline) and From Day 36 to Day 70 | 30% | <=0.001 | YES |
| REVERSE-SD NCT03402659 · P2 · 2019-06-30 | EIP Pharma Inc | Total and Delayed Recall on the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test - Revised (HVLT-R) | 23% | 0.564 | NO |
| ENGAGE NCT02477800 · P3 · 2019-08-08 | Biogen | Change From Baseline in Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) Score at Week 78 | 34% | 0.2250 | NO |
| EMERGE NCT02484547 · P3 · 2019-08-05 | Biogen | Change From Baseline in Clinical Dementia Rating Scale - Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) Score at Week 78 | 34% | 0.0901 | NO |
| Treatment of Psychosis and Agita… NCT02129348 · P2 · 2020-01-01 | New York State Psychiatric Institute | Change in Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) Agitation/Aggression Domain Score | 33% | 0.53 | NO |
| Relapse Prevention Study of Pima… NCT03325556 · P3 · 2019-07-31 | ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Time From Randomization to Relapse in the Double-blind (DB) Period | 22% | 0.0023 | YES |
| PTI-125 for Mild-to-moderate Alz… NCT04079803 · P2 · 2020-03-31 | Cassava Sciences, Inc. | Change From Baseline in CSF Abeta42 | 39% | 0.087 | NO |
| STEADFAST NCT02080364 · P3 · 2018-06-01 | vTv Therapeutics | Change From Baseline in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive (ADAS-cog) Total Score | 17% | 0.3386 | NO |
| NAVIGATE-AD NCT02791191 · P2 · 2018-07-02 | Eli Lilly and Company | Change From Baseline in ¹⁸F-AV-1451 Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Standard Uptake Value Ratio (SUVr) at 52 Weeks | 50% | 0.418 | NO |
| A Study of MP-101 in Dementia-Re… NCT03044249 · P2 · 2020-01-30 | Mediti Pharma Inc. | Percentage of Participants With 30% Improvement From Baseline in the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) - Psychosis Subscale or Aggression/Agitation Subscale Score | 20% | 0.48 | NO |
| MissionAD1 NCT02956486 · P3 · 2020-01-15 | Eisai Co., Ltd. | Core Phase: Change From Baseline up to Month 24 in the Clinical Dementia Rating-sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) Score | 23% | 0.385 | NO |
| Brain Imaging Study Of Rosiglita… NCT00265148 · P2 · 2008-07-10 | GlaxoSmithKline | Change From Baseline (Day 1) in Global and Regional Indices of Cerebral Metabolic Rate of Glucose (CMRglu) at Month 12 | 22% | 0.1695 | NO |
| BI 425809 in Patients With Cogni… NCT02788513 · P2 · 2019-09-12 | Boehringer Ingelheim | Change From Baseline in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale 11 Item (ADAS-Cog11) Total Score After 12 Weeks of Treatment | 27% | 0.9931 | NO |
| MCI NCT00620191 · P2 · 2012-02-01 | Columbia University | Change in Total Recall Score in the Selective Reminding Test | 21% | 0.05 | NO |
| Imaging Characteristics of a Fol… NCT02051764 · P2 · 2016-12-01 | Avid Radiopharmaceuticals | Change in Tau Deposition | 41% | 0.2837 | NO |
| Evaluation of Flortaucipir PET S… NCT03901105 · P3 · 2019-04-28 | Avid Radiopharmaceuticals | Risk Ratio for AD Symptom Progression on CDR-SB | 13% | 0.0313 | NO |
| Follow up 18F-AV-1451 Scan in Co… NCT02795780 · P2 · 2017-08-28 | Avid Radiopharmaceuticals | Change in Tau Deposition Over Time by Diagnostic Group and Amyloid Status | 43% | 0.0166 | NO |
| MCI NCT02016560 · P2/3 · 2017-07-28 | Avid Radiopharmaceuticals | Confirmatory Phase: Relationship Between Neocortical Flortaucipir Uptake and the Subsequent Rate of Cognitive Decline | 58% | 0.067 | NO |
| Safety and Efficacy Study of Lad… NCT01354691 · P2 · 2012-09-01 | Avraham Pharmaceuticals Ltd | ADAS-Cog: Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale | 16% | <0.67 | NO |
| Safety and Tolerability Study of… NCT01922258 · P3 · 2017-03-01 | Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. | Change From Baseline to Week 12/Early Termination in the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) Total Score | 30% | =0.1454 | NO |
| A Phase 3, 12-week, Multicenter,… NCT01862640 · P3 · 2017-03-15 | Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development & Commercialization, Inc. | Change From Baseline In The Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory (CMAI) Total Score After 12 Weeks Of Brexpiprazole Treatment | 33% | =0.0404 | YES |
| Study Evaluating Intepirdine (RV… NCT02910102 · P2 · 2017-11-01 | Axovant Sciences Ltd. | Change From Baseline in Gait Speed (cm/Sec) Measurements From Baseline to the End of Each Double-blind Treatment Period Based on Computerized Gait Assessment Tools. | 15% | 0.3565 | NO |
| Safety and Efficacy of Suvorexan… NCT02750306 · P3 · 2018-09-30 | Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC | Change From Baseline in Polysomnography-derived Total Sleep Time (TST) at Week 4 | 35% | 0.00128 | YES |
| TOMMORROW NCT01931566 · P3 · 2018-07-24 | Takeda | Time to Diagnosis of Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (MCI-AD) for Placebo-treated, High-risk, Non-Hispanic/Latino Caucasian Participants Versus Placebo-treated, Low-risk, Non-Hispanic/Latino Caucasian Participants | 70% | 0.023 | NO |
| AMARANTH NCT02245737 · P2/3 · 2018-10-04 | AstraZeneca | Change From Baseline on the 13-item Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13) | 30% | 0.232 | NO |
| DAYBREAK-ALZ NCT02783573 · P3 · 2018-09-28 | AstraZeneca | Change From Baseline in Alzheimer´s Disease Assessment Scale- Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13) Score | 23% | 0.129 | NO |
| APECS NCT01953601 · P3 · 2018-04-17 | Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC | Part 1 (Base Study). Least Squares Mean (LSM) Change From Baseline in Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) Score at Week 104 | 18% | 0.6734 | NO |
| PRONTO NCT02632786 · P2 · 2018-03-01 | Prothena Biosciences Ltd. | Number of Participants With Cardiac Response and Non-Response | 18% | 0.3190 | NO |
| ATTR-ACT NCT01994889 · P3 · 2018-02-07 | Pfizer | Hierarchical Combination of All-Cause Mortality and Frequency of Cardiovascular-Related Hospitalizations | 20% | 0.0006 | YES |
| Study Evaluating Intepirdine (RV… NCT02585934 · P3 · 2017-09-01 | Axovant Sciences Ltd. | Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale 11 Items (ADAS-Cog-11) Score Change From Baseline to Week 24 | 18% | 0.2249 | NO |
| Alzheimer Disease Proof of Conce… NCT02240693 · P2 · 2017-09-18 | Boehringer Ingelheim | Change From Baseline in Neuropsychological Test Battery in Total Z-score After 12-week Treatment. | 24% | 0.3236 | NO |
| BI 409306 in Patients With Cogni… NCT02337907 · P2 · 2017-09-15 | Boehringer Ingelheim | Change From Baseline in Neuropsychological Test Battery in Total Z-score After 12-week Treatment. | 30% | 0.7907 | NO |
| A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate the… NCT01428453 · P2 · 2013-02-04 | GlaxoSmithKline | Change From Baseline (Day 0) in Cerebral Spinal Fluid (CSF) Amyloid Beta Peptide (Abeta) 42 and Abeta40 at Week 24 | 43% | 0.133 | NO |
| Efficacy and Safety of T-817MA i… NCT02079909 · P2 · 2017-05-05 | FUJIFILM Toyama Chemical Co., Ltd. | ADAS-cog Change From Baseline to Week 52 | 20% | 0.3919 | NO |
| Efficacy And Safety Of CX516 In … NCT00040443 · P2 · 2003-08-01 | RespireRx | 15-Item Word List Delayed Recall | 19% | <.05 | NO |