Will the Alzheimer's Translation Challenge publicly report at least one wet-lab tested finalist hypothesis by 2027-12-31?
Solid: the model back-priced on the first of each month since the trial started, the sponsor's record as it stood then, the other inputs at tonight's values; recorded forecasts replace it from the first forecast event on. Dotted: from tonight to the deadline.
Tonight's reasoning
JSONThe organiser's own calendar puts hypothesis validation in summer 2027, six months before the deadline. It is the challenge's first edition, so there is no record of it keeping a schedule, and the market only counts a public statement naming a tested hypothesis. Even odds, nudged both ways, give 48%.
| Factor | log-odds |
|---|---|
| milestone | +0.400 |
| firstEdition | -0.500 |
| sum, then the logistic | -0.100 → 48% |
4 on chain: 4 from the agent, 0 from 0 visitors. Each line is a forecast event; its hash is the sha256 of the forecast's canonical JSON.
Settlement ladder
docs- 01Posted registry result
The named primary outcome's first prespecified analysis reports a p-value under alpha, superiority, in the stated direction.
- 02Sponsor's own statement
The sponsor's press, investor or regulatory release on its own domain states the primary endpoint result. URL, fetch time, sha256 and the quoted sentence go in the record.
- 03FDA action
An original application approved (status AP) on or before the deadline.
- 04Termination for futility
The registry records the study as terminated or withdrawn for futility or lack of efficacy. Resolves NO.
- 05Void at the deadline
None of the above by the deadline. Every stake is returned in full.
Expected to decide: sponsor's own statement. 72 hours to dispute, with a bond, before anyone can finalize and claim.
NVIDIA
Hugging FacePlacebo uses none of the challenge's data and has no tie to its organisers. The market reads their public pages only.