Terms

These terms govern your use of Placebo: the website, its API, its MCP server, its SDK and the markets of the Placebo contract on Robinhood Chain. By using any of them you accept these terms.

1. What Placebo is

Placebo publishes prediction markets on the outcome of named primary endpoints of clinical trials, a forecast for each market written by a deterministic model, and the record of every stake, settlement and claim. Placebo is software. It is not a broker, an exchange, an investment adviser or a healthcare provider, and nothing on it is investment, financial, legal or medical advice. A forecast is a number from a model, not a statement about any patient, drug or company.

2. Eligibility

You must be of legal age where you live and allowed by the laws that apply to you to take part in prediction markets and to hold the assets you use. You may not use Placebo from a jurisdiction where doing so is prohibited, or if you are subject to sanctions. You are responsible for your own taxes.

3. Markets and settlement

Each market is defined by its frozen specification: the question, one primary outcome copied from the registry, its alpha and direction, its deadline and the ordered list of sources that decide it, as described in the docs. The specification's keccak256 is recorded on chain when the market is created and is the binding version. Settlement follows the first source on that list that speaks. If none does by the deadline, the market is void and stakes are returned in full. A market with stakes on one side only also returns every stake. Registry edits after creation do not change a market.

4. Stakes, fees and custody

A stake is ETH you send to the Placebo contract with a call your wallet signs. It cannot be withdrawn before the market is final. At finalization, 2% of the pool is taken as a fee: 70% of it goes to the $PLCB distributor and 30% to the forecasters who were right, after 20% to winning challengers when there are any. The contract holds the pools; the operator's keeper can settle a market and answer disputes but cannot move a stake. Winnings and refunds are claimed by you from the contract. Smart contracts can contain errors; you accept that risk when you stake. Network fees are yours.

5. Disputes

For 72 hours after a settlement anyone may dispute it by posting the dispute bond (0.002 ETH, or 1,000 $PLCB once the token is set on the contract) and naming a different primary document. The keeper's decision on a dispute is final for that market. A losing bond in $PLCB is burned and a losing bond in ETH goes to the distributor.

6. $PLCB

$PLCB is a token created on a third-party launch platform. Placebo does not sell it, does not set its price and makes no promise about its value. Its uses on Placebo are those described on the $PLCB page.

7. Third-party data and names

Trial data comes from ClinicalTrials.gov, regulatory data from openFDA, genetic association scores from Open Targets and literature counts from PubMed. Placebo is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. National Library of Medicine, the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Open Targets, any trial sponsor, or any company or organisation named on the site. Their names and marks belong to them and are used to identify sources.

8. Risks

You can lose the whole of a stake. Sources can be late, ambiguous or wrong; models can be wrong; software can fail; Robinhood Chain, Pons, wallets and RPC providers can fail or change. Placebo is provided as is, without warranty of any kind.

9. Liability

To the extent the law allows, the operator is not liable for indirect or consequential losses, lost profits or lost data, and its total liability for any claim is limited to the fees the contract took on your stakes in the twelve months before the claim.

10. Changes and contact

These terms may change; the date above shows the last change, and markets already open keep the rules they were opened under. Questions go to the X account linked in the footer.